What the Luck The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives In Israel pilot trainees who were praised for doing well subsequently performed worse while trainees who were yelled at for doing poorly performed better It is an empirical fact that highly intellig
In Israel, pilot trainees who were praised for doing well subsequently performed worse, while trainees who were yelled at for doing poorly performed better It is an empirical fact that highly intelligent women tend to marry men who are less intelligent Students who get the highest scores in third grade generally get lower scores in fourth grade.And yet, it s wrong to conIn Israel, pilot trainees who were praised for doing well subsequently performed worse, while trainees who were yelled at for doing poorly performed better It is an empirical fact that highly intelligent women tend to marry men who are less intelligent Students who get the highest scores in third grade generally get lower scores in fourth grade.And yet, it s wrong to conclude that screaming is not effective in pilot training, women choose men whose intelligence does not intimidate them, or schools are failing third graders In fact, there s one reason for each of these empirical facts Statistics Specifically, a statical concept called Regression to the Mean.Regression to the mean seeks to explain, with statistics, the role of luck in our day to day lives An insufficient appreciation of luck and chance can wreak all kinds of mischief in sports, education, medicine, business, politics, and It can lead us to see illness when we are not sick and to see cures when treatments are worthless Perfectly natural random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision making Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped readers identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought In What the Luck , statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains in clear, understandable, and witty prose how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our livesd can help us learn to rely less on random chance, and on truth.

What the Luck?: The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives  Gary Smith 319 Gary Smith

Title: What the Luck?: The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives  Gary Smith
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Published :20190917T00:42:17+00:00
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944 Replys to “What the Luck?: The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives”
To a statistician with a hammer, every problem looks like a regression to the mean.I stopped reading ~40% in, this isn't going to get better.
This book examines how chance / random events alter performance.I thought this book was quite interesting, but overall it just seem to say that things are never as good or as bad as they seem and that random events can (at the margins) determine what result is achieved.
I really want to like Gary Smith's books selling statistical thinking to the general public, and in some ways I thought this improved over his previous Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics. But oof, 95% of this book is the same thing, over and over. (The other 5% is a chapter where the topic suddenly is proper experimental design in medical studies. Which is a nice change of pace, except that it doesn't have much to do with anything the bo [...]
The author statistically proves regression to the mean. It gets somewhat repetitious, but makes it's points that luck plays into all endeavors, such as sports, the stock market, gambling etc.
I guess it was acceptable to listen to, but not much fun if i'm honest.The writer makes so many of the same points continuously that it sometimes seems like some of the things he's implying are somewhat contradictory.Either way. There's a good lesson to be learned from this book: luck always plays a role no matter what!!The method of presenting this simpe lesson isn't the best, it's repetitive, and waaaaaaay too statistical. The writer LOVES just throwing out ratios and percentages and numbers o [...]
Pick any one chapter from the book and read it, it is as good as reading the whole book. The author keeps yammering page after page about Regression to the mean and quoting various anecdotes to support his theory. It looked interesting in the beginning, but since it doesn't talk about anything else, it became boring after sometime. It feels as if author fell in the same trap he was talking about data mining, torture the data sufficiently enough to make it look the way you want. This book really [...]
I really enjoyed this read. It was not so 'mathy' as to throw off the more casual reader but had enough to keep me interested as someone who likes the 'methy' approach. The real life examples will provide context for all.
I enjoyed learning about regression to the mean. I had no idea what that was before I read this book. I enjoyed reading about how that affects investing, sports, business.
It's too much statistics for me. Will probably read it again another time to better understand it. The concept of sustained performance is almost nonexistent!
"What the Luck" explores the statistical phenomenon of "regression to the mean". Gary Smith goes into great detail about the measurable means of what most adults know intuitively, that, what is statistically high or statistically low will always degrade or upgrade to the statistical mean. He follows with examples from sports, business, education, medical treatments, and a host of other real life measurable examples. Sometimes, a redundant, but an interesting study. Final analysis, nothing is as [...]
An enjoyable read. The examples illustrate the points very well from several fields of human endeavour.The average person can easily understand and enjoy "What the luck?"The role that chance plays in everyday and major events are clearly argued. The combination of small insignificant events when put together have major consequences. For example, this often holds true in baseball as every baseball fan knows.Seelochan Beharry
Mythbusting information centered on a concept called regression to the mean that explains how we can be misled by luck in our daytoday lives.
I like the main idea of the book, but I just couldn't continue after two chapters because the author keeps repeating the same theory again and again. The book is not very easy to read either.
Regression to the mean, baby. Liked looking for real examples.
I found this book to be repetitive but it definitely opened my eyes to the role luck plays on day to day events.